Reports from the media throughout Canada today indicate that new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney will dissolve Parliament on Sunday and may schedule an election as soon as April 28.
Wagering Odds Narrow
Carney secured the Liberal leadership on March 9 following Justin Trudeau's resignation and takeover of the Prime Minister position. Recently, the main narrative in Canadian politics has centered around Carney experiencing a surge in poll numbers following his leadership, aided by a segment of the Canadian populace rallying against U.S. President Donald Trump and a trade tariff initiative, believing that the ex-banker and globalist is the most qualified to handle the situation.
Both the betting markets and prediction markets such as Polymarket have significantly changed in favor of Carney and the Liberals following Justin Trudeau's departure from office.
Current polls show the Liberals leading slightly (37.7% according to the CBC Poll Tracker), with Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives at 37.4%, and even suggest a potential Liberal majority government. This clarifies when Carney made his announcement.
Prediction Markets Vary Dramatically
FanDuel has the Liberals and Conservatives closely matched at -125. BetMGM lists the Conservatives at -125 and the Liberals at -100. Bet365 offers odds of -120 for Conservatives and -120 for Liberals.
Next is Polymarket, which has experienced significant volatility lately that has benefited Carney. Users of the cryptocurrency prediction platform based in New York, established in 2020, can place bets on news events such as political and legislative results, awards, and economic indicators.
This afternoon, Polymarket shows Carney with a 60% likelihood of winning ($2.11 million in volume), while Poilievre stands at 41% ($3 million in volume). Slightly more than a month ago, that division was at 83% Poilievre and 17% Carney.
The situation is similar at Kalshi, where Carney's odds stand at 59% and Poilievre's at 41%.