Following President Joe Biden's decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden, for any crimes he has committed or could potentially commit between Jan. 1, 2014, and Dec. 1, 2024, gamblers on political betting platforms are wagering on who else the president may choose to offer clemency.
Users on Kalshi, a peer-to-peer online site providing political derivatives, think the president’s eldest sibling, Jim Biden, is set for a pardon. After Biden reneged on his promise to honor the rule of law and the US Justice Department by not granting Hunter a pardon, Jim Biden's shares for receiving a pardon have surged on Kalshi.
Gamblers estimate that Jim Biden has a 33% likelihood of obtaining a Biden pardon. The likelihood continues to rise, increasing by 13 points within just a day, as many suspect that a DOJ under President-elect Donald Trump might pursue the 75-year-old, whom several Republicans claim has been involved in dubious business practices and often called upon his brother to assist in advancing his investments.
Hunter’s pardon arrives only weeks prior to his planned sentencing for gun and tax offenses.
Laptop Continues to Be Central
Hunter Biden's infamous laptop, which was obtained by the Justice Department in 2019 after law enforcement officials seized it from a Delaware computer repair shop owner, disclosed a close bond between Hunter and his uncle.
"Hunter, we are cut from the same cloth,” one email read. “You are a fine and yes, a gentle person. Believe it or not, I know you. Sounds corney [sic], but we both deserve to enjoy the moment. Concentrate on the good in our lives and try to step out of all the bulls*** you deal with on a minute to minute basis.”
At that moment, the two Bidens were negotiating an agreement in China and other international collaborations for their investments and businesses based in the US. Republican lawmakers think Jim leveraged his surname to obtain high-risk loans, most of which he failed to pay back. Jim Biden’s business ventures have included hospitals, insurance firms, and nightclubs.
A profile published in The Washington Post in 2022 characterized Jim Biden as a “political wild card.”
Forgiveness for Fauci?
Another favored pardon wager on Kalshi and Polymarket, which is a comparable exchange that exclusively operates in cryptocurrency, is Dr. Anthony Fauci. Gamblers believe that Trump’s prosecutors might target the individual who headed the U.S. response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Certain Republicans argue that Fauci misled Congress by rejecting claims that the US government, through the National Institutes of Health, was financing “gain-of-function” research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where the coronavirus probably started. GOP leaders also claim that Fauci misled the American public by emphasizing that the COVID-19 vaccines would halt the transmission spread.
Fauci's chances of obtaining legal immunity from President Biden are being valued on Polymarket with implied odds of 14%. That’s an increase of 2% in the last 24 hours.
In a less probable situation, Polymarket is providing odds on whether Diddy will receive a pardon from the president. Diddy, a lifelong member of the Democratic Party and financial supporter, is confronting allegations of racketeering, forced sex trafficking, and transportation for prostitution purposes.
Polymarket gamblers estimate Diddy has only a 2% chance of regaining his freedom via presidential intervention.