During a recent appearance on Fox Business, businessman and serial entrepreneur Kevin O'Leary, who goes by "Mr. Wonderful" and is most known for his lengthy career on "Shark Tank," stated that he looks to bettors rather than pollsters to determine a political race's most accurate pulse.
O'Leary, 70, stated in an interview with Stuart Varney that he believes wagering activity is a more accurate indicator of a race than polls.
"I’d rather go with the Vegas bettors in terms of looking at election results. They’re better than the pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history,” O’Leary said.
In theory, there are no political bettors in Las Vegas because the state of Nevada forbids its authorized sportsbooks from making wagers based on election outcomes. Election-related wagering is illegal in all states that allow sports gambling, but it is common in the UK and throughout Europe.
Many US gamblers who want to wager on elections with real money do so via contentious political wagering exchanges. These internet marketplaces enable peer-to-peer exchanges of election outcome shares between participants.
In Ontario, the home province of O'Leary, political betting is likewise permitted. Following the July failed attempt on Donald Trump's life, FanDuel and BetMGM in Canada withdrew their 2024 odds on the US presidential race.
The Accuracy of Political Markets
Though political betting exchanges are still in their infancy, these services did predict the 2016 election correctly, with Hillary Clinton leading former President Donald Trump by a significant margin. It was also accurately anticipated by the consensus odds on political exchanges that Joe Biden would unseat Trump almost four years ago.
What are the current odds, then? Kamala Harris is preferred by Polymarket, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange, on November 5. Her odds suggest that she has a 52% chance of becoming the 47th president of the United States. Implied probabilities for Trump's shares are 46%.
Harris is currently the clear favorite according to UK bookmakers that provide conventional odds on the US elections. The vice president is offered by high-street bookmakers at 4/5 (-120). On that line, a winning $100 wager would bring in $80.
Before President Joe Biden chose to follow their leaders' advice and withdraw from the 2024 race, Trump was a clear favorite. However, at this point, he is the underdog. The former casino owner's odds for 2024 are even money, meaning that a $100 wager that wins will return $100.
At 100/1, Robert Kennedy, Jr. comes in a far third.
It's Too Early to Tell
According to O'Leary, as the policy arguments between Trump and Harris intensify and perhaps even take place, the betting markets will offer more insightful information.
"I don’t think anybody can call this race right now. We’ve got to get into the policy wars and hopefully the debate wars,” O’Leary said.
“I want to remind you that back when Trump was debating Clinton, there was a Sunday when the football games were on and I found myself watching the debate and being more entertained than football,” O’Leary continued. “I think the potential of a Harris-Trump debate is going to be great television.”