Johnny Avello, the well-known bookmaker on the Las Vegas Strip, states that the trading desk he manages for DraftKings has expanded from six employees to 75 since he became part of the company in 2018. DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations, Avello developed the trading team and now states that due to the traders' exceptional skills, he doesn't have to be as involved as he was in previous years.
A Rise in NFL Betting
Wagering on the immensely popular NFL is a major factor for that expansion. One aspect Avello mentions — and something the league has accomplished effectively recently — is scheduling. With games scheduled from Thursday to Monday, along with a few Christmas Day matchups this year, the NFL maintains consistent momentum throughout the regular season, benefiting sportsbooks significantly.
“And then you throw in a couple of college games as well, on a Tuesday,” said Avello, from his Las Vegas DraftKings’ office. “It’s a fabulous time for football enthusiasts.”
Wildcard Weekend
Beginning this Saturday, the NFL Wildcard Weekend will showcase six games spanning three days, along with numerous betting narratives.
And there’s no one better than Avello to provide insight on this weekend’s matches:
Chargers vs. Texans: Saturday 4:30 p.m. EST, CBS
- Spread: Chargers -3 (-105), Texans +3 (-115)
- Moneyline: Chargers -162, Texans +136
- Over/Under: 41.5
“There’s not a whole lot of line movement in these games, especially on the side. There is some total movement, but not spread movement,” Avello said. “Now, when I say that, some of the games have moved, but they’ve come back to the initial number that we opened up with. Chargers, being one of those. We opened this game 3. We did go down to 2.5 at some point yesterday, for a short period of time. Now we’re back to 3.”
Avello stated that the majority of the betting is on the Chargers.
"If we’re somewhat lopsided on any game – and there’s a long way to go, these games could even change by the time we get to game time. But the Chargers do have quite a bit of money on them for this one.”
Avello mentioned that gamblers are optimistic about the relationship between Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback Justin Herbert.
“I think that bettors really like that,” Avello said. “Especially Harbaugh, coming to the team and taking them to this spot in his first year (as coach). And Herbert’s a good quality quarterback.”
Avello mentioned that the Teans appeared to be a Super Bowl contender at the start of the season and that they "might still reach that point," despite not having a great season so far.
“C.J. Stroud struggled a little bit lately, and I think the bettors have picked up on that, and that’s why they’re on the Chargers,” Avello said. “Now, with that being said, this could be a close one. But the bettors see this as the Chargers coming in with more momentum and playing better football at this point.”
Steelers vs. Ravens: Saturday 8 p.m. EST, Amazon Prime
- Spread: Steelers +9.5 (-108), Ravens -9.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Steelers +350, Ravens -455
- Over/Under: 43.5
“Lamar Jackson has numbers to be an MVP in any year. I mean, he’s just off the charts numbers,” said Avello.
Since these teams have faced each other two times this season, they know one another well, which in Avello’s view, should result in a competitive match. "Baltimore was favored by 3 points against Pittsburgh." They are defeated in a low-scoring match, 18-16. Later in the year, they were home, we opened them at 4, and the betting moved to 7. "They truly buried the Steelers in that second match."
Avello mentioned that gamblers will probably incorporate this match into various parlays throughout the weekend.
“We’re going to be absolutely loaded up on Baltimore money line and Baltimore money line parlays … Now you’re laying a stiff price. You’re laying five to one, but that’s the way the bettors like to play these big favorites, try to leverage the payoff a little better. So this game will probably be parlayed heavily with the Buffalo game, then some of that will certainly going to the Eagles game and then some other games also.”
Broncos vs. Bills: Sunday 1 p.m. EST, CBS
- Spread: Broncos +8.5 (-112), Bills -8.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Broncos +340, Bills -440
- Over/Under: 47.5
“The Bills have home field advantage for a couple of games, and their home field advantage is one of the stronger ones in the NFL. It’s probably worth two and a half to three points. The weather, the crowd, they just play well there. It’s a difficult place to go play,” Avello noted.
He mentioned that Buffalo's famously challenging weather could, in fact, benefit their star quarterback, Josh Allen.
“As a matter of fact, he’d rather it be windy,” Avello said. “Other quarterbacks would struggle.”
Avello stated that what might challenge the Bills is their inadequate pass defense facing a strong Broncos squad led by rookie QB Bo Nix, who has performed well this season.
“This is his first time, in playoff territory, and you know the Bills,” Avello said. “The one thing I don’t like about the Bills – their pass defense is very suspect. Their secondary doesn’t seem to have the coverage, and they let teams score a lot of points on them. But that’s their game. Can we score more points than the other opponent?”
DraftKings lists the Bills as the favored team for the game, with Avello noting that the majority anticipate their victory. "However, will they address that 8.5?" "The gamblers will likely place the money line," he remarked.
Packers vs. Eagles: Sunday 4:30 p.m. EST, FOX
- Spread: Packers +4.5 (-105), Eagles -4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Packers +190, Eagles -230
- Over/Under: 45.5
“You got to talk about the health of Jordan Love (Packers QB) and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts,” Avello said looking at this matchup.
"He’s [Hurts] not out of concussion protocol yet, although he might be out by this morning. But we anticipated that he was going to play. And this number that we opened up, 4.5, was with him playing, and that number has held up. I’m 99% sure he’ll play. If he doesn’t, I’ll be shocked, and this number will fall like a rock.
The Packers' problem, conversely, is that they didn't perform very well towards the end of the season.
“Love may not be 100%,” he said, adding that “Christian Watson, to me, is a big deal on this team. To have him on the field, they seem to always play much better.”
He mentioned that the Eagles "are simply a well-rounded team overall... I mean, running back Saquon Barkley had an outstanding year." He took a week off last week, so he’s definitely prepared to start.
A strong receiving group and “possibly the best defense among all playoff teams this year” are additional reasons why Avello has high expectations for the Eagles.
“I see them as a real deal, and probably can go far. But the 4.5, I don’t know if the 4.5 is going to hold up. And in my opinion, I think this game probably goes to 5, maybe even 5.5 by the time we get close to game time. It’s just settled right now and hasn’t moved much. The totals come down a little bit from 46.5 to 45.5. But, you know, we’ll see where the line goes. I don’t see it coming down, but I could see it going up a tick as we get more clarity on the health of the quarterbacks.”
Commanders vs. Buccaneers: Sunday 8 p.m. EST, NBC
- Spread: Commanders +3 (-105), Buccaneers -3 (-115)
- Moneyline: Commanders +145, Buccaneers -175
- Over/Under: 50.5
“If I was betting the game, I probably wouldn’t lay the 3. I’d probably be looking at the dog,” Avello said. I love Baker Mayfield’s style of play. This guy is probably the hardest working quarterback in the NFL. He gives it all every game,” he added.
Nonetheless, Avello mentioned that the Bucs are rather one-dimensional. "You have Mike Evans, his reliable receiver, and Bucky Irving, a solid running back." They have some strong players, yet I view them as a team that's better than most. "I don't perceive them as anything beyond that."
According to Avello, the Commanders might have already reached their highest point.
"I think the end of the season wasn’t as good as the beginning of the season (for the Commanders). It wasn’t bad. He’s (rookie QB Jayden Daniels) capable of running and throwing the ball downfield. He can do a lot of good things. But again, he’s in a playoff atmosphere. Baker Mayfield has been in his atmosphere before, whereas Daniels has not.
Avello believes the game's 3-point spread is precisely where it needs to be. "Anything above that, where we started at 3.5, was captured early." Individuals perceived that as valuable. It has been stable at 3 for now, with minimal movement observed. "It’s likely to drop to 2.5."
Vikings vs. Rams: Monday 8 p.m. EST, ESPN/ABC
- Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-108), Rams +1.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Vikings -118, Rams -102
- Over/Under: 47.5
“We opened this game Vikings 2.5. We’re down to 1.5. We’ve been as low as 1. As a matter of fact, we went even to the Rams 1 at one point, and now we’re back to Vikings again, 1.5,” Avello said of this matchup that was scheduled to be played in Southern California’s SoFi Stadium before this week’s devastating wildfires forced it to be moved to Glendale, Ariz.
Even with the change of venue, Avello thinks this will still be a favorable game for the Rams since it presents a solid matchup for them.
“The concern with the Vikings coming into this game was that were playing Sunday night (against the Lions). They’re playing for No. 1 seed, which means that they get a bye week. They win the division. Everything was looking positive they could win that game. Well, they lost that game, and now they are a five seed. I don’t think the coach did a good job in that game. They should have kicked field goals when they had the opportunity, instead of playing the Lions’ game and going for it all the time,” Avello said.
Worries regarding QB Sam Darnold’s future with the Vikes might also influence the game.
"I don’t know if this is on players minds or not, but if Sam Darnold takes this team deeper into the playoffs, he becomes the quarterback, and then maybe they think about trading the rookie when he comes back next year, trying to get some draft picks. So I don’t know if that’s in a player’s mind. I think at hand right now is to go in and try to win this football game.”
Though he claims Darnold "has no evidence that he excels in these types of games, and last week was part of that," Avello does not place all the blame on him. "I believe the Vikings are a good team." I believe this is a challenging contest for them, as the Rams have a quarterback who has won a Super Bowl. "They have excellent wideouts."