Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) was among the top-performing casino stocks last year. As the operator continues to increase its market share in Las Vegas and Macau and as the investor community pricing in the advantages of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) integrated resort, it may accomplish the same feat this year.
According to a recent analysis by Texas Capital analyst David Bain, the gaming company is gaining market share in its two biggest regions, Las Vegas and Macau, supporting a higher valuation than rivals.According to Bain, Wynn's 2026 enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA) is 10.9x, which is higher than the 8.3x average for its peer group. That is marginally less than competitor Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), and despite last year's surge, Macau casino stocks are generally thought to be cheap.
"WYNN continues to outperform in Las Vegas (LV) and deserves a premium valuation, though our sum-of-the-parts valuation uses 1-turn below the former ‘standard’ LV multiple,” notes Bain. “Every EV/EBITDA multiple turn for WYNN’s LV and Macau division equate to $8 per share each in our sum-of-the-parts valuation. WYNN stock sensitivity to valuation multiples in both LV and Macau are positive for shares given our view for investor sentiment improvement in both markets.”
Bain started covering Wynn with a $155 price target and a "buy" recommendation. The operator's US business is valued at $72, Wynn Macau at $51, and the forthcoming casino in the United Arab Emirates at $32. According to Bain, the operator has 38 acres of land next to its casino hotel in Las Vegas that might be "developed or sold for capital deployment/deleveraging."According to some analysts, the proceeds from such a deal may reach $1 billion or more.
Wynn's Stock May Rise Due to the Las Vegas Rebound
Last year, Wynn's emphasis on upscale clients was a big advantage as competitors in Las Vegas that had a lot of exposure to budget-conscious customers faltered. Wynn stands to gain even if travel to the US casino center increases this year, as experts and operators predict.
With data indicating record group nights in 2026, Bain believes Wynn's enormous expansion of its conference space could be a driving force for the Las Vegas operations this year. Because they book rooms Sunday through Wednesday and are typically not price conscious when it comes to food and drink, business travelers are crucial to strip operators.
“We believe 2026 benefits from a greater year-over-year group calendar, fiscal stimulus/tax rebates, thawing of international travel, and easier year-over-year comparisons, particularly into/out of summer,” says the analyst. “WYNN’s neighboring Sphere has also announced additional events, which should modestly improve higher-end leisure traffic/stays.”
Conventions at other locations and infrastructure improvements, such as the Hard Rock casino and a new Major League Baseball stadium, might increase Wynn's exposure in Las Vegas, according to Bain.
Is the United Arab Emirates a Potential Singapore?
Analysts and investors have been paying more attention to Wynn Al Marjan Island, the $5.1 billion casino resort that is scheduled to open in the first quarter of 2027. As the first regulated gambling venue in the Middle East, market participants are placing greater significance on Wynn's share price. If analogies to Singapore turn out to be valid, more praise may be earned in the long run.
"We believe there are several similarities between the Singapore gaming market and the UAE, including wealth migration, wealth visitation, likely relatively low gaming tax, and limited gaming competition,” notes Bain. “UAE has outpaced Singapore in terms of per annum relocated millionaires of late (~double Singapore at ~7,000 last year) and currently has over 200,000 millionaire residents versus 330,000 for Singapore. Airport passenger traffic in Dubai now exceeds Singapore by 14 million.”
Given that the two casinos in the city-state, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa, are among the most lucrative in the world, Wynn investors would undoubtedly be happy if the UAE casino industry resembled Singapore's.